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Monday, March 28, 2011

Still long EUO and YCS

Just an update on the portfolio. Most of my longs are in EUO and YCS. Both were beat-up as of late. However, it seems as though some of the US federal members are becoming a little more hawkish. Long-term, Europe is in trouble before we are. When this happens, people will buy the US dollar (even though it is crap). This will likely coincide with a pullback in stocks. Once we see the pullback, we'll dump our positions and look to go long on commodities and food based equities. My belief is that the Fed, after seeing the run up of equities after QE1 & 2, will start pumping more money so the economy doesn't slip into recession again. This is the beginning of the end, but there will be money to be made in commodities (food, silver, gold, etc...). If left to its own devices, the market will correct itself. If the government keeps intervening, we'll ride the sugar high for a little while longer. We'll also debase our currency in the process. Not too positive of an outlook, but one of these scenarios will happen. I think we'll see a decent economy for a couple months or even the rest of the year unless the Europe trouble rears its ugly face (Spain & Italy). Not so worried about Portugal. Think about it.... good luck trading.

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