Europe and the Euro

Seems to me that the entire world is just kicking the can down the road.  Greece should just default and go back to their old currency the drachma.  This, as others have said, would cheapen their currency and make tourism cheap (their #1 money maker).  The problem is that we have let banks and large international banks get so powerful and greedy that they have major exposure if a country as tiny as Greece defaults.  So much so that we don't even know how much exposure they have because of the derivatives and everything else that banks are allowed to do to make a quick buck.  So, its just a matter of time and I have all the time left to watch this happen.  With austerity comes severe blows to GDP and income.  Greeks are the European union's slaves now. Although, they have another chance next month to default.  Either way, the dollar will move higher.  I still think the dollar is a piece of sh*t currency, but due to its weighing against the Euro, EUO will see some major movement.

Also, anyone notice how much crime there is anymore?  This isn't by chance.  The Federal Reserve has created inequality and increased the wealth gap during their latest rounds of easing.  Its just going to get worse as other have no choice but to rob and steal to feed their families.  I am long precious metals (physical), short the Euro (which unfortunately means long the dollar), Looking for a correction this Fall and then the fed to step in and stimulate even more.  I'll then go back to Bullish for the shor-term until it causes more problems than good and we're back in the same mess even deeper... probably in a war.

My Current Porfolio

My current portfolio looks like this
AUG Put options @ 145 on GLD.  This has worked out well due to people selling off in summer.  I switched this with my 154 call options on GLD once gold hit 1555 last week.
EUO
Long Newmont mining
20% cash on sidelines
TZA & FAZ (we're not out of the woods with poor economic data.  Shorting the market until fed injects more stimulus)
Dec 2011 SPY Put options @ 90.  Long shot, but we'll see.  My take is that the market will start to rollover and the fed will inject more stimulus.  Trying to time this up with then buying call options on the SPY into 2012.  Then, I will buy more put options once we get close to a top.

Looking to buy more put options on LNKD.  This is very over-valued. 

Overall, cautious right now.  Still buying physical silver and gold. 

Europe

Still long EUO.  It is now apparent what was already apparent back earlier in the year that Europe is insolvent.  Even though Greece's eoncomy is about the size of Florida, there has been so much leveraging of debt that nobody is sure how many countries and companies will take a hit.  Probably will be the start of contagion.  Italy is now in the firing line.  Spain will fall as will Italy (eventually).  The dollar will be the safe haven.  HOWEVER, you need to start accumulating gold and silver.  Commodities that have always had value.  Do not rely on paper money.  It is intrinsically worth 0.  I now see that IF....IF the market begins to rollover (highly likely), then the fed will interject with stimulus.  This is game over folks.  They'll probably come in large. This created inflation will be directly affect 3rd world countries and others such as Russia and China.  What I think we're looking at will be a world war.  China & Russia (others) versus US (others).  We will see very high prices and extreme inflation as other countries sell the US dollar in their currency reserves.  This in affect increases our interest rates (means the fed has to keep printing).  We have 100 trillion due (medicaid, medicare, social security) etc.. 14.3 is a joke.  The fed will continue to print until the dollar is worthless.  Think about it.  There is no way out of this.  SOOOOOO..... start buying gold and silver no matter the cost on paper.  Invest in commodities and go long energy / natural resources AFTER the fed announces a new round of stimulus.  Could be as early as August.  Things are going to get interesting.  I'm not a doomsday prophet, just logical and very well read on many indirectly related topics.  It all points to another World War once other countries are fed up with our B.S. Monetary policy.  Talk to you soon...

Still long EUO and YCS

Just an update on the portfolio. Most of my longs are in EUO and YCS. Both were beat-up as of late. However, it seems as though some of the US federal members are becoming a little more hawkish. Long-term, Europe is in trouble before we are. When this happens, people will buy the US dollar (even though it is crap). This will likely coincide with a pullback in stocks. Once we see the pullback, we'll dump our positions and look to go long on commodities and food based equities. My belief is that the Fed, after seeing the run up of equities after QE1 & 2, will start pumping more money so the economy doesn't slip into recession again. This is the beginning of the end, but there will be money to be made in commodities (food, silver, gold, etc...). If left to its own devices, the market will correct itself. If the government keeps intervening, we'll ride the sugar high for a little while longer. We'll also debase our currency in the process. Not too positive of an outlook, but one of these scenarios will happen. I think we'll see a decent economy for a couple months or even the rest of the year unless the Europe trouble rears its ugly face (Spain & Italy). Not so worried about Portugal. Think about it.... good luck trading.

World to face water shortage by 2025 - UPI.com

World to face water shortage by 2025 - UPI.com: "World to face water shortage by 2025"

CWCO

The CWCO is a water play that I don't see paying out until longer-term. They pay a dividend which is nice. The main reason I'm high on them long-term is due to the clean water shortage. They desalinate ocean water for countries with poor water quality. Most likely a 10 year play. I add to my position when buying opportunities present themselves.

HERE IT IS: Your Short Course On Why The US Is Screwed

HERE IT IS: Your Short Course On Why The US Is Screwed

This puts everything into perspective. Common sense stuff. If we can curb our spending with entitlement programs, I will turn bullish on the US economy. If not, I'm long term bearish and high on commodities.

Current Positions: YCS, EUO

47 Statistics That Indicate That Economic Stress Points In 2011 Could Be Setting The Stage For A Global Economic Meltdown In 2012

47 Statistics That Indicate That Economic Stress Points In 2011 Could Be Setting The Stage For A Global Economic Meltdown In 2012: "47 Statistics That Indicate That Economic Stress Points In 2011 Could Be Setting The Stage For A Global Economic Meltdown In 2012"

Food, food, and more food. There are too many people and guess what? We all need to eat. I've been positioning myself to short the market over the last several months as the market has continued to climb. Libya is one thing, but take this fact into account: We owe roughly 75 trillion in social security payments to baby boomers when they retire. This doesn't include interest payments on our debt. Social security is funded through taxpayer dollars. The tax base is going to significantly shrink in the next several years. How are we going to fund this? We're going to print... Or, we're going to raise taxes. Either one will have a significant impact on your life. Another astounding fact is that every fiat currency ever in existence has risen then fallen and was never heard from again. Fiat currency is one which isn't backed by anything such as gold i.e. the Dollar. My belief is that we're headed for a correction soon. Not sure how low we'll go. But, I think it will get back on track and then in the next several years is when the wheels fall off. Our public debt is too big. Why???? When you raise taxes or print money, buying power decreases. When buying power decreases, so do earnings and profits of the private sector. Its not rocket science. My opinion will change if, and when, we discover a new technology such as energy or medicine. Get your head out of the sand now.

Geithner Quietly Tells Obama Debt-to-GDP Cost Poised to Increase to Record - Bloomberg

Geithner Quietly Tells Obama Debt-to-GDP Cost Poised to Increase to Record - Bloomberg

We're really looking at a future where the fed will either print us out of debt or a collapse in the markets. I hate to be all doom and gloom, but we cannot expect printing cheap money and rising borrowing costs/debt won't have a dramatic impact sooner than later. If you learned anything from the crisis in Egypt, know that inflation is good until a point. When it crosses the point where people cannot afford food and resources needed to live, it gets ugly. Pretty soon manufacturers will pass on their costs to us or their profits will take a ding. When this happens, either people will pinch to get by, or earnings will deteriorate. There is a fine line that a country needs to walk with inflation. Too much and people cannot afford common goods which inevitably ruins an economy.

I'm currently long EUO and long YCS. These are short term plays. I like silver, but waiting for a pullback.

IMF discusses plan to replace dollar as reserve currency - Feb. 10, 2011

IMF discusses plan to replace dollar as reserve currency - Feb. 10, 2011: "IMF calls for dollar alternative"

Just a matter of time because we are devaluing our currency and it is hurting the rest of the world. Emerging markets are feeling this pain now as seen in Egypt with high food prices. We at home even feel it at the pump and grocery store. Moving off the dollar as the world's reserve currency will just make this pain worse. Prepare now...

Some 43 Million Use Food Stamps - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Some 43 Million Use Food Stamps - Real Time Economics - WSJ: "Some 43 Million Use Food Stamps". So everyone knows whats going on in Egypt.... Why can't this happen in America? Don't be fooled. It can and it will if people aren't given their food stamps. Why the concern DT? Because we're over 14 trillion in debt and it continues to grow with no end in sight. In the next 3-10 years, I see the dollar being replaced as the world's reserve currency. What does this mean? Higher... way higher food and commodity prices! Also, if people can't afford to eat and our government can't afford to give freebies then guess what? Egypt is not that far removed from what we may face. Its called the normalcy theory. People don't think it can happen to them. Oh, but if our government keeps doing what they're doing, it will.

World food prices hit record high: UN agency

World food prices hit record high: UN agency: "World food prices hit record high"

Don't ignore the headlines. Higher food prices are coming. I think we're running a little hot right now with commodity prices, but in the next several years we'll be way past where we are now with food prices. Good plays on food are: DBA, RJA, CORN, and FUD. I'm waiting for a correction in prices and then will jump all over some of these. I also am very high on Cotton BAL in the coming years. Who is going to clothe all those Chinese?

I also love rice at the moment, but nobody has a damn rice ETF! All you can do is buy futures or options.

Short the Euro Symbol: EUO

My first post is going to be simple. The Euro is going to show weakness in the coming year.  Spain and Portugal aren't out of the muck.  Spain reported over 20% unemployment.  The economy is on a sugar high right now and reality will set in soon with a correction.  I suggest playing EUO.  Its an inverse 200% ETF.   This means that you are betting the Euro will go down in value.  I'm in @ 18.80.  If the Euro shows strength and it goes below $18.25, I'm doubling up.